NUMBERS OF E.COLI ILLNESSES COULD BE TEN TIMES GREATER

Michael Osterholm, director of the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy at the University of Minnesota, has said that the actual number of infections resulting from the very toxic E.coli outbreak centered in Germany, could be 10 or more times higher than those officially announced.

So let's say the official numbers are 2,000 illnesses from this very unusual bacteria (that's probably close to what they will be tomorrow). That would mean that it's really closer to 20,000. Is this possible?

Yes, not only possible, but probable. That is what I have been suggesting in previous posts, so I am glad someone agrees. In all outbreaks there are large numbers of affected people who are not included in the reporting system: because they don't go to the doctor, because laboratory tests are not performed, because the tests don't turn up the bacteria (numbers present in the stool will decrease after the first few days), because the cause is not correctly identified, because the doctor or hospital doesn't have time to send in a report.

In addition, there are reporting delays: not just a few days, but sometimes weeks, while the information works its way through the system. This means that the reported statistics are always behind the real ones. And, much lower than the real ones.

Based on a review of the U.S. experience, The Safe Food Handbook suggests that probably as few as 3% of actual cases of food borne illness actually enter the official reporting system. I would guess that it is better in Europe, where the regulatory agencies are not as underfinanced and overworked as they are here. But it is still only a fraction.

To your good health!

TSF

CUCUMBER TRAVEL ADVICE FOR BRITONS - AND OTHERS

A couple of weeks ago, vacationing or business travel in Germany would have been considered very safe. Not any more. Particularly around Hamburg. This is the center of the "cucumber crisis." Most of the over-thousand hermorragic E.coli-related illnesses have been linked to eating food here. A considerable number have occurred among people from other countries such as Sweden, Denmark, France, visiting this area, or, residents of Germany who ingested the cucumbers and at home and then went abroad and became ill.

Britain is the latest country to be hit by cucumber fears. At least three cases among visiting Germans are suspected to be part of this outbreak, one of them confirmed. In fact, the advice to Britons now is not to eat raw cucumbers - or, raw lettuce or tomatoes (see earlier post) - when visiting Germany. And remember, washing or peeling is not guaranteed to solve the problem. If the cucumber has been sliced up or otherwise prepared in a restaurant or hotel, the risk could be even greater, as it could also be contaminated by a food worker who is a carrier of the bacteria (or others).

The "incubation" period for pathogenic E.coli (the time between ingesting it and developing symptoms of illness) can be as little as one day or a week or even longer. That means that you can feel perfectly well for a while after eating that deadly cucumber, keep working or vacationing and get on that plane and then become ill.

And yes, the bacteria are contagious. That is, they can be passed along not only in food or water, but also from person to person and even from the water in a swimming pool where it can survive for weeks, particularly if not well chlorinated. So I will add a bit more advice to travelers: don't let the water from a public swimming pool enter your mouth - not even a few drops. Don't dive in, don't dive under, and in fact, you may want to think twice about using the pool at all.

To your good health!
TSF